Market Reaction to Brexit

European stocks are down across the board, as this was in many ways a big surprise. The market was not reckless enough to not price in this possible outcome and you can see this in many of the markets.

Here is the UK FTSE index over the 3 day period leading up to today’s decline. Seeing this recovery in stocks is crucial, as it tells you the initial shock is in place and an immediate absorption of reality shows that investors are buying stocks after the Exit.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Here is Germany’s reaction over the same time period, a similar style recovery:

(Source: Bloomberg)

And here we are in north America, our market has yet to open, but it shows an indicative open, as it is slowly recovering:

(Source: Bloomberg)

Here we are in north America over a 1-year market including todays bad day:

(Source: Bloomberg)

Our expectation is that the market strengthens throughout the day. I constantly say this, but we in North America do not take the passenger seat to the Europeans – we are the leaders and we will have to lead forward again. I’ll send an update this afternoon, if the market begins to fail and go lower this afternoon, it’s not good, but we expect to see a slow build back up in the market.

Our recent buys have been primarily USD and we are seeing a nice rally in the USD vs most currencies. Here is a phenomenal move in the USD vs the pound over the same 3-day period:

(Source: Bloomberg)

We have several buy allocations ready, in the USA and Canada, and will make a judgement call to act based on the market action.

Happy to discuss, and unfortunately I won a bet for a coffee on this, and it may be my most expensive coffee ever~

 

Chris, Rick, Steve

416-572-5429

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