Turkey CALL! Deja Vu 2015 – Looks a Lot Like 2011

As the legendary late Yogi Berra said, “It's like deja-vu, all over again.” There has been much chatter that 2015 resembles 2011.

In both years, the S&P 500 market was relatively flat over the first seven months of the year, but then experienced steep declines in August.

In 2011, the S&P bounced off of its August lows, and finished lower at the end of September.

As the pattern plays out, it’s pretty amazing that on September 28th of 2011, the S&P 500 was down 8.47% year-to-date.  As of close Sept 28th, 2015, the index sits down 8.49% year-to-date. You can’t get much closer than that.

In 2011, the S&P 500 bottomed on October 3rd with a year-to-date change of -12.6%. But that was the extent of the declines for that year. After making its low on October 3rd, the index surged into year end and finished the year exactly flat. Fast forward to 2015, and most investors would certainly take a flat year-to-date change at this point.

S&P 500: 2011 vs. 2015 (YTD % Change)

Source: VIP Wealth Solutions and Bloomberg

Now we know the economic and market forces that can influence the market are often not the same. In 2011, the majority of economic data was now a tail wind.

All this suggests that there should be some economic and fiscal tailwinds to help push equities markets along the path they have travelled down for the past 4 years.

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